Climate Trace estimates 2022 greenhouse gas emissions will reach 91 million tonnes CO2eq, with over 40% of emissions from fossil fuel production.[7] The petroleum industry in Azerbaijan exports fossil gas. Over 90% of exports from Azerbaijan are petroleum-based.[8] Azerbaijan has over 7 billion barrels of proven crude oil reserves under the Caspian Sea.[9] Energy consumption is estimated at about 16% of GHG, while transportation is estimated at about 10% of GHG.[7]
In the post-Soviet economic period, the Azerbaijani economy has become state-controlled and oil-based. Oil is the main contributor to the Azerbaijan economy; decreases in oil prices negatively affect the entire country. [8]Cotton may be the most affected agriculture in Azerbaijan, which is sensitive to climate change.[13][14] In 2023, the Minister of Agriculture reported that the country is engaging in climate-smart agriculture.[15] Fishing is affected.[16] Stranded assets are a long-term risk.[17]Azerbaijani health may suffer from the extreme heat and a longer malaria season.[18]
Mitigation and adaptation
As of 2023[update] there is no net zero target.[4] There are intermediate GHG reduction targets.[4] The country's second Nationally Determined Contribution includes a 40% reduction compared to 1990.[19] It may be possible to produce low-carbon hydrogen.[20]
^Schuur, Edward A.G.; Abbott, Benjamin W.; Commane, Roisin; Ernakovich, Jessica; Euskirchen, Eugenie; Hugelius, Gustaf; Grosse, Guido; Jones, Miriam; Koven, Charlie; Leshyk, Victor; Lawrence, David; Loranty, Michael M.; Mauritz, Marguerite; Olefeldt, David; Natali, Susan; Rodenhizer, Heidi; Salmon, Verity; Schädel, Christina; Strauss, Jens; Treat, Claire; Turetsky, Merritt (2022). "Permafrost and Climate Change: Carbon Cycle Feedbacks From the Warming Arctic". Annual Review of Environment and Resources. 47: 343–371. doi:10.1146/annurev-environ-012220-011847. Medium-range estimates of Arctic carbon emissions could result from moderate climate emission mitigation policies that keep global warming below 3°C (e.g., RCP4.5). This global warming level most closely matches country emissions reduction pledges made for the Paris Climate Agreement...
^Phiddian, Ellen (5 April 2022). "Explainer: IPCC Scenarios". Cosmos. Archived from the original on 20 September 2023. Retrieved 30 September 2023. "The IPCC doesn't make projections about which of these scenarios is more likely, but other researchers and modellers can. The Australian Academy of Science, for instance, released a report last year stating that our current emissions trajectory had us headed for a 3°C warmer world, roughly in line with the middle scenario. Climate Action Tracker predicts 2.5 to 2.9°C of warming based on current policies and action, with pledges and government agreements taking this to 2.1°C.
