The Offender Group Reconviction Scale (OGRS) is a tool, used by the Ministry of Justice in England and Wales , which uses statistical methods to assess the probability of a person reoffending using information about a person's past - specifically any criminal history.[ 1] [ 2]
History
There were a number of predictors of recidivism in use in England and Wales, most often to inform the parole process.[ 3] National Reconviction Assessment Scale (NRAS).[ 4]
The tool was first developed by the Home Office under Michael Howard 's tenure as Home Secretary before being transferred to HM Prison and Probation Service the Ministry of Justice.[ 5] [ 2]
Methodology
OGRS 2 did not use social or clinical factors.[ 3]
OGRS 3 considers factors such as:[ 5]
type of offence
prior criminal history (including duration in years)
gender of the individual being assessed OGRS 4 uses a machine learning algorithm.[ 6]
Versions
The OGRS was first launched in November 1996.[ 2] [ 7] [ 8] [ 9]
Criticism
The OGRS has been criticised because of the high levels of stop and search among ethnic minority groups in the United Kingdom and this specifically being a frequent first point of contact for many young black men and the criminal justice system.[ 10]
See also
References
^ Hamilton, Melissa; Ugwudike, Pamela (2023-07-26). "A 'black box' AI system has been influencing criminal justice decisions for over two decades – it's time to open it up" . The Conversation . Archived from the original on 2023-08-01. Retrieved 2025-03-23 . ^ a b c Copas, John; Marshall, Peter (1998). "The Offender Group Reconviction Scale: A Statistical Reconviction Score for Use by Probation Officers" . Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C (Applied Statistics) . 47 (1): 159– 171. doi :10.1111/1467-9876.00104 . ISSN 0035-9254 . JSTOR 2986060 . ^ a b Howard, Philip (2018-02-20), Singh, Jay P.; Kroner, Daryl G.; Wormith, J. Stephen; Desmarais, Sarah L. (eds.), "Offender Group Reconviction Scale" Handbook of Recidivism Risk/Needs Assessment Tools (1 ed.), Wiley, pp. 229– 241, doi :10.1002/9781119184256.ch11 , ISBN 978-1-119-18428-7 , retrieved 2025-03-23 ^ "Searching for Proof of Probation Officer Effectiveness" Probation Journal . 42 (3): 126– 134. 1995-09-01. doi :10.1177/026455059504200301 . ISSN 0264-5505 .^ a b "Offender Group Re-Conviction Scale Version 3 (OGRS3)" (PDF) . Risk Management Authority Archived (PDF) from the original on 2025-03-23. Retrieved 2025-03-23 .^ Hamilton, Melissa (2023-07-26). "A 'black box' AI system has been influencing criminal justice decisions for over two decades – it's time to open it up" . The Conversation . Archived from the original on 2024-12-31. Retrieved 2025-03-23 . ^ Francis, Brian; Humphreys, Leslie (2007-01-01). Development of a reoffending measure using the Police National Computer (Report). ^ Francis, Brian; Soothill, Keith; Humphreys, Leslie (2009). OGRS 3: the revised Offender Group Reconviction Scale (PDF) (Report). Archived (PDF) from the original on 2021-05-05. Retrieved 2025-03-23 . ^ Morgan, Robert D. (2019). The SAGE Encyclopedia of Criminal Psychology doi :10.4135/9781483392240 . ISBN 978-1-4833-9226-4 {{cite book }}: CS1 maint: location (link )^ "Ask The Expert: The Lammy Review of Black and Minority Ethnic representation in the Criminal Justice System" . Social Market Foundation Archived from the original on 2022-07-01. Retrieved 2025-03-23 .
External links
