Per SOHR:[21] 170 soldiers and 27 militiamen killed (between 15th of January and the 5th of March 2020) Per Middle East Institute:[22] 405 government soldiers and militias killed (between 28th of February and the 6th of March 2020)
Including: 9–14 killed, 30 wounded [23][24][25][26] 21 killed[27]
Operation Spring Shield (Turkish: Bahar Kalkanı Harekâtı) was a cross-border military operation carried out by the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) in the Idlib Governorate of northwestern Syria against the Syrian Armed Forces and allied militias. The operation was launched on 27 February 2020 in direct response to the Balyun airstrikes, aiming to address the escalating situation in the region.[32][33]
According to Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar, the primary objective of Operation Spring Shield was to achieve a ceasefire agreement within the framework of the Astana talks and to establish stability in the Second Northern Syria Buffer Zone. Additionally, the operation sought to prevent the mass migration of people from Idlib to the Turkish border, a pressing humanitarian concern.[34]
On 5 March, Turkey and Russia signed a ceasefire agreement in Moscow, marking a step towards de-escalation in the region.[4]
On 27 February 2020, during the Dawn of Idlib 2 Operation, Turkish Army positions in Balyun, Idlib Governorate, came under attack from airstrikes allegedly conducted by the Syrian Air Force and the Russian Air Force. Resulting in the deaths of 36 Turkish soldiers,[35][16] with a reported number of wounded ranging from 36 to 60.[36][37]
The following day, Russia denied it had carried out the airstrikes and stated that it had made efforts to halt the Syrian military's firing to facilitate the safe evacuation of the Turkish troops. Russia said that the Turkish forces should not have been present in the area, where "counter-terror operations" were underway, and criticized Turkey for failing to notify them about the soldiers' presence in advance. On the contrary, Turkey maintained that Russia was well aware of the locations of Turkish troops, as the two countries regularly communicated about this matter.[38]
Following the air attack in Balyun, Turkey officially launched its military intervention, initiating Operation Spring Shield. The primary objective of this operation was to put a stop to the Syrian government forces' advancement on Syrian rebels in Idlib and push them back to their pre-offensive positions.[39]
On 28 February, the Turkish Ministry of National Defense reported that the Turkish armed forces had responded to the airstrikes and claimed to have "neutralized" 329 Syrian troops. Additionally, they claimed to have successfully destroyed five helicopters, 23 tanks, 10 armored vehicles, 23 artillery and howitzers, one SA-17, and one SA-22 air defense systems belonging to the Syrian government.[40][41]
A Syrian military official acknowledged that their armored and technical vehicles had been heavily targeted, resulting in significant destruction of their arsenal in northwestern Syria.[42]
A Turkish soldier, 11 Syrian soldiers and four members of the Lebanese Hezbollah were killed during the day.[43][44]
During the day, 48 Syrian government soldiers and militias, including 14 Hezbollah fighters were killed and at least 13 military vehicles were destroyed by Turkish strikes.[47]
1 March
On 1 March, two Syrian Su-24 jets were shot down by Turkish Air Force F-16s.[29] All four Syrian pilots safely ejected. Both Syrian and Turkish forces confirmed the downing.[48] Meanwhile a Turkish TAI Anka drone was shot down by Syrian forces.[49] Additionally, Turkish drones bombed the 47th brigade in Hama Military Airport.[50]
During the day, 19 Syrian soldiers were killed by Turkish drones attacks in Jabal al-Zawiya and Al-Hamidia, Idlib countryside.[51]
2 March
On 2 March, a Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drone was shot down by Syrian Air Defense Force near Saraqib.[52] During the day, a Turkish soldier and 26 Syrian government soldiers were killed in the clashes in Jabal Al-Zawiyah, south Idlib countryside, Saraqib and its countryside.[53][54]
3 March
On 3 March, the Syrian Army captured the strategic city of Saraqib and several surrounding villages after pushing back rebel forces supported by Turkish artillery and air power.[55][56] The Turkish airstrikes on government targets reduced significantly amidst a further government advance toward the town of Afis.[57][58] Concurrently, a Syrian Air Force Aero L-39 Albatros was shot downed by a Turkish F-16 over Idlib, with conflicting reports over the pilots fate.[59][60] Meanwhile, a Turkish Bayraktar drone was shot down by the Syrian Army in the western Aleppo countryside.[61][62]
During the day, five Turkish soldiers were killed by Syrian bombardment in Taftanaz Airbase, Al-Tarnaba and Al-Mastouma camp.[63][64]
4 March 2020
On 4 March, Turkish sources claimed that Suheil al-Hassan was wounded by a drone strike near Saraqib.[65] A Turkish Bayraktar TB2 was shot down by Syrian forces in the Idlib Governorate.[66][67]
During the day, 19 Syrian soldiers and seven non-Syrian fighters were killed by Turkish ground shelling and drones in Idlib countryside.[68]
Ceasefire
On 5 March 2020, the presidents of Turkey and Russia, Erdoğan and Putin, met in Moscow for high-level talks.[69] According to the statements made by the Turkish and Russian leaders following their one-on-one meeting, a ceasefire in the area of Idlib was to come into force from 00:00 hrs on 6 March. The terms of the ceasefire included a secure corridor 6 kilometers either side of the M4 highway, to be patrolled jointly by Russia and Turkey beginning on 15 March.[70]
Syrian Government losses
On February 29, Reuters reported that nine Hezbollah militants were killed and 30 wounded in an attack by the Turkish Air Force.[71] It was announced that 4 tanks, 5 artillery pieces/MLRS, 3 anti-tank vehicles were destroyed and 184 Syrian soldiers were killed between March 4–5 in Operation Spring Shield. According to Turkey's claims, 3,322 Syrian soldiers were neutralized between February 27 and March 5.[72]
Middle East Institute think tank found that 405 Syrian government soldiers including 30 senior officers were killed in the week between February 27 and March 6. The institute’s report also noted that the Syrian army lost 73 tanks and armored vehicles, as well as a large number of anti-aircraft guns and artillery pieces. It was determined that the death toll suffered by the regime on the same front between March 1 and May 31 was more than 600. The report did not mention the number of wounded.[22]New Lines Institute reported that it received information from sources close to the American government, and that as a result of the Turkish Armed Forces' attack, the Syrian Army lost 3 warplanes, 3 UAVs, 8 helicopters, 135 tanks, 86 artillery and MLRS, 77 armored vehicles, 9 ammunition depots, 5 air defense systems, and 16 anti-tank and mortar positions. It was also stated that an average of 60 regime soldiers were thought to have been killed per day between February 27 and March 5.[73]
Institute for the Study of War, Rand Corporation and many think tanks, primarily, stated that the operation carried out by the Turkish Armed Forces revolutionized modern warfare tactics and changed the balance of power in Syria.[75][76] The precision attacks carried out by the TSK with Koral electronic warfare systems and TB-2 and ANKA type armed UAV systems neutralized the air defense systems of the Assad Regime forces.[77][78] The Turkish operation stopped the Syrian government desires to reclaim all Idlib.[79] As a result of the TAF’s counterattack, the regime forces’ offensive capacity was eliminated.[80]
Aftermath
Since the signing of the ceasefire in March 2020, the Syrian Air Force has not conducted any airstrikes within the de-escalation zone, and this status remains unchanged as of April 2023.[81]
Fukuyama stated that Turkey has made a revolution in the military use of drones and caused a change in modern military tactics.[82]
^Lister, Charles (12 March 2020). "Turkey's High Stakes in Northwest Syria". New Lines Institute. Archived from the original on 16 January 2025. Retrieved December 27, 2024. In the space of a week, Turkey's air campaign appears to have destroyed the following (I'm told that the U.S. government considers this information "more or less" accurate):3 fighter jets,3 aerial drones,8 helicopters,135 tanks,86 artillery and multiple rocket launch (MRL) systems,77 armored vehicles,9 arms depots,5 air defense systems,16 anti-tank guided missile and mortar positions.Perhaps more significant than weapons losses were the hundreds of pro-regime personnel killed in Turkey's strikes – an average of 60 per day from Feb. 28 to March 5.
^Cafarella, Jennifer; Dunford, John; Land, Michael; Wallace, Blane (2020-03-18). "Turkey Commits to Idlib". Institute for the Study of War. Archived from the original on 14 January 2025. Retrieved 2024-12-25. Turkey's intervention in Idlib Province changed the military balance in northwest Syria... Turkey has compelled Russia to enter a new de-escalation agreement, but that agreement is unlikely to hold... Russia opted to de-escalate in Idlib in September 2018 after attempting but failing to compel Turkish-backed opposition groups to surrender...Turkey's response indirectly but significantly weakened Russia's military position in Idlib. The casualties and equipment losses badly depleted the ability of pro-regime forces to launch further offensives...Turkey's targeting of regime aircraft and airbases also forced Russia to face even greater material and manpower costs to sustain an air campaign, either by expanding its own air campaign or offsetting the regime's losses. Finally, Turkey's targeting of the regime's air force also delivered a significant morale victory for the Syrian opposition and the displaced Syrian populations who have suffered years of unmitigated aerial bombardment.
^Parachini, John V.; Wilson, Peter A. (2 July 2020). "Drone-Era Warfare Shows the Operational Limits of Air Defense Systems". RAND Corporation. Archived from the original on 10 December 2023. Many of the tactics, techniques, and procedures used to defeat SHORADS in Libya were tested during the Turkish military's brief 2020 winter campaign in Idlib Province during which Turkey destroyed Pantsir SHORAD and Buk-M1 medium-range SAM systems operated by the Assad Regime.
^Tanchum, Michaël (2020-03-25). "Turkey's In-between State of War and Peace with Russia". The Turkey Analyst. Retrieved 2024-12-25. Employing its domestically-produced KORAL land-based transportable electronic warfare system that can create ghost images on enemy radar, Turkey was able to inflict an impressive amount of damage to Syrian as well as Russian military assets using its Bayraktar TB2 and Anka combat drones...Turkey's overriding interest to entrench its influence northern Syria compel Ankara to yield to Moscow and seek a new equilibrium somewhere between war and peace in Idlib.
^Kasapoglu, Can (17 April 2020). "Turkey's Drone Blitz Over Idlib". Jamestown Foundation. Archived from the original on 7 March 2025. Retrieved 14 March 2025. While the Turkish Armed Forces scored a large number of kills on the Baathist regime's combat units, the unmanned systems' success in eliminating Syria's Russian-manufactured surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems deserve the utmost attention. Within a week, Turkey's UAVs destroyed a total of eight Pantsir and Buk air defenses
^"Turkey shoots down two Syrian warplanes, destroys armor, kills troops as conflict escalates". Washington Post. 2020-03-01. Retrieved 2024-12-25. Turkey shot down two warplanes and inflicted heavy losses on ground forces in northwestern Syria on Sunday as the two countries edged closer to an all-out war...The situation on the ground was fluid, and the progress of the Turkish-backed offensive was difficult to assess. But it appeared the Turkish intervention had succeeded in halting, and in some places reversing, weeks of Syrian government advances into the last enclave of rebel-held territory that have sent nearly a million people fleeing toward Turkey for safety.
